As artificial general intelligence (AGI) continues to evolve, the potential impact on society is enormous. AGI could lead to unprecedented economic growth, but it also raises many concerns. How might AGI advance or hinder progress toward a more equitable and flourishing world?
Envisioning Different Futures: Pessimism vs. Optimism
AGI's impact on social and economic justice could be largely determined by our collective outlook—whether we choose to approach it with pessimism or optimism.
In the pessimistic scenario, companies and individuals might withhold investments, cut jobs, and attempt to do more with less, leading to a few large organizations dominating the landscape and widespread unemployment. In this world, white-collar jobs become scarce as humans struggle to compete with highly intelligent AI systems.
What’s the optimistic scenario? It seems possible to envision a world where AGI makes individuals incredibly productive. Hiring people in this world would generate 50%-300% more value than in 2021. As a result, companies may actively seek to hire as many people as possible to capitalize on these productivity gains. This might lead to enormous wealth distribution, rapid skill development and human fulfillment. Empowered by ultra-powerful AI, people will be better equipped to address the various challenges facing society.
Realistically, the future is likely to be a blend of these two scenarios, possibly oscillating between them. The future of AGI and its impact on society is uncertain, but by envisioning and actively steering toward more optimistic outcomes, we can work to ensure that the benefits are distributed widely. In other words, if we can clearly envision a positive future, we may be more likely to achieve it.
One way human-centered design might play a role is to help envision these positive futures in a way that makes them easier to pursue. I will look forward to that!